Alcatel-Lucent and Slugglish iPhone4 Uploads, Putting a Drag on LTE?
By Ken Rehbehn
By Ken Rehbehn, Principal Analyst, Yankee Group
Engadget reports AT&T has tagged Alcatel-Lucent as the culprit behind sluggish iPhone4 upload performance. According to Engadget, AT&T pointed to a network software fault that will be quickly addressed by the vendor.
This is a serious issue because it comes on the heels of a highly public RNC failure in an Alcatel-Lucent UMTS radio network in New Zealand. The press attention ALU received from its South Pacific failure potentially stirred operator concern just as LTE bid opportunities ramp up.
AT&T’s issue, while probably quickly fixed, certainly adds to any existing concerns lurking in the operator community. Lost greenfield LTE contracts may be the result.
To be sure, Alcatel-Lucent is in an excellent position with two early critical LTE wins under its belt in the U.S. Effectively delivering on its commitments to Verizon Wireless and AT&T will reassure prospective LTE operators and put ALU in a strong position for LTE growth.
While equipment suppliers typically perform their critical role behind the operator’s closed back office door, ALU and its marquee LTE customers must consider changing. ALU and its customers need to communicate success in early days of LTE network testing. Publication of informative deployment quality metrics can buttress ALU’s position, helping ensure a long and prosperous future as an LTE supplier. For ALU, this need is obvious. For operators like Verizon Wireless and AT&T, it is less so; however, a strong Alcatel-Lucent translates into long-term supplier continuity essential for lower CapEx spend and outstanding network quality.
Getting word out about success in these significant LTE network rollouts is good for all parties. Secrecy followed by failure, on the other hand, will be a quick road to an LTE dead end.
Nominations Now Open for 4G World RCR Wireless Ecosystem Awards
By Kate Walsh
Looking back over the past year, or even over the past 6 months, there have been a number of revolutionary and exceptional achievements made in the pursuit of 4G technologies and the mobile Internet. If you’re a member of any part of the 4G wireless ecosystem or have just been following 4G Trends you’ve likely come to appreciate the significant opportunities and challenges that this rapidly evolving industry brings with it. Your opportunity to nominate, recognize and reward those industry pioneers and innovators is now available.
“The 4G World 2010 event team is pleased to collaborate with RCR Wireless News to extend this unique and exciting program to the entire 4G wireless ecosystem,” said Eliot Weinman, President, Events and Media, 4G World Conference Chair, Yankee Group Research Inc. “This awards program has evolved, along with the wireless industry, over the past 6 years and it continues as one of the most accessible, coveted and credible programs out there.”
“RCR has been following developments in fixed and mobile wireless since our inception,” explained Jeff Mucci, Publisher, RCR Wireless News. “4G technologies are increasingly important enablers of innovative service provider delivery models and compelling new mobile applications. We are honored to be able to publicly acknowledge those innovative companies that are responsible for the development and deployment of such technologies.”
Consider what you’ve experienced, what you know, what you’ve seen, read and heard as it relates to the 4G wireless industry. Is there a company in the wireless industry that stands out among others and is deserving of recognition? The 4G World RCR Wireless Ecosystem Awards has created the following award categories to recognize these leaders:
- Best Overall Ecosystem Company
- Best 4G Enabling Technology Innovation
- Best Mobile Internet Capital Provider
- Best Mobile Chip Company
- Best Mobile Internet Device Company
- Best 4G Infrastructure OEM
- Best 4G Infrastructure Service Company
- Best Tower Company
- Best DAS Deployment
- Best Global 4G Operator Deployment
- Best Mobile Content Provider
- Best Mobile Application
- Best Mobile Marketing Campaign
You can recognize your choice of industry leaders by way of an online nomination. Nominations are now open and can be made by visiting http://rcrecosystemawards.com/index.html until 5:00 pm PT Friday, September 17, 2010.
Judging of all eligible entries will be performed by independent award selection committee consisting of RCR Wireless News’ leading editorial team, Tracy Ford and Dan Meyer, and its publishers as well as other industry leaders, subject matter experts, and influencers, who have been chosen at the sole discretion of Arden Media. In addition, a special Best of 4G World Award will be voted on by 4G World attendees. All award recipients will be announced at 4G World on Tuesday, October 19, 2010.
WiMAX Poised for Portable Broadband Success
By Andrew Mitchell
By Dr. Philip Marshall, Ph. D., Senior Research Fellow, Yankee Group Research
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Bolstered by an improving economy and a more suitable marketing plan, global WiMAX subscriptions are expected to grow from 3.9 million today to 92.3 million in 2015.
What happens when you take a strong wireless technology like WiMAX, introduce it with great fanfare and then slam it with a poor economy, slow spectrum licensing and incorrect positioning in the marketplace? Just exactly what happened to WiMAX worldwide over the past year or so.
Previously, Yankee Group forecast that in 2008, global WiMAX subscriptions would hit 3.8 million. In reality, that number won’t be reached until year-end 2009, primarily because WiMAX has been hit with a veritable tsunami of constraints. In addition to a deep, worldwide economic recession and the collapse of the credit markets, WiMAX last year faced slower-than-expected spectrum licensing, especially in areas with huge subscriber potential like India and Indonesia. And as if the economic crisis wasn’t enough to dry up investment dollars, WiMAX also saw a crisis in investor confidence due to its mismatched positioning against 3G and advanced 3G technologies like LTE, HSPA and HSPA+.
What’s Weighing WiMAX Down?
Flawed market positioning is the biggest gating factor for WiMAX, as providers and regulators continue to place WiMAX in the mobile broadband space versus the portable broadband market. Yankee Group defines “portable broadband” as a service that is available for stationary or pedestrian use within limited network coverage areas. “Mobile broadband” services, by contrast, are available over wide coverage areas and support continuous connectivity at vehicular speeds. For the most part, WiMAX and portable broadband are best suited to unserved and underserved markets, whereas 3G and advanced 3G technologies tend to flourish in the mobile broadband arena, where legacy technologies abound.
But when WiMAX first hit the scene in 2004, its primary aim was to disrupt the mobile broadband market, which had a less-than-stellar track record, especially in terms of price, performance and reliability. Since then, however, the mobile broadband industry has pulled its act together and accelerated the development of 3G, HSPA, HSPA+ and LTE. Now, with its 3G competitors in more of a position of strength technology-wise, WiMAX has less of a story to tell-and less of a compelling business opportunity-in the mobile broadband space.
The fact is WiMAX isn’t especially suited to mobile broadband. Its high-performance radio technology and end-to-end all-IP architecture does, however, shine in green-field fixed and portable broadband applications-a market it is just now beginning to address in earnest. While we assume the mobile broadband market will be dominated by technologies like HSPA, HSPA+ and LTE, the portable broadband market-an area of rapid growth especially in emerging EMEA markets like Central and Eastern Europe and Africa-is WiMAX’s for the taking.
Over the next few years, as the gating factors begin to ease, Yankee Group believes WiMAX is poised to take off. In fact, we forecast that WiMAX subscriptions will grow from 3.9 million today to 92.3 million in 2015, a CAGR of 69 percent (see Exhibit 1).
Exhibit 1: Global Subscription Forecast for Mobile WiMAX Technology
Source: Yankee Group, 2009
Some Like It Mobile
While the lion’s share of WiMAX’s predicted increases will happen in the portable broadband segment, there are notable exceptions to the rule. For example, service providers in the U.S. (in addition to Japan and Korea) are taking a relatively aggressive stance targeting WiMAX toward mobile applications.
In North America, WiMAX activity is dominated by Clearwire, which aspires to deploy a nationwide WiMAX network in the U.S. in the 2.6 GHz frequency band and provide 4G services to its strategic partners, including Sprint and Comcast. Clearwire is in the process of upgrading from a proprietary technology to mobile WiMAX (802.16e), and to date, it offers commercialized mobile WiMAX service in Atlanta, Baltimore, Las Vegas and Portland, Ore., with aggressive plans to launch additional markets through 2009 and 2010. Combine Clearwire with upstarts DigitalBridge Communications and Xanadoo, and the North American market is well-served by WiMAX players.
Another impetus for WiMAX growth in the U.S. market is the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009, which earmarks $7.2 billion to broadband-related projects. With these factors in mind, Yankee Group projects that WiMAX subscriptions in North America will increase from 1.0 million in 2009 to 13.4 million in 2015, a 53 percent CAGR (see Exhibit 2).
Exhibit 2: Robust Growth in North America as WiMAX Penetrates Residential Broadband
Source: Yankee Group, 2009
Slow Going in Asia-Pacific
In contrast with North America, the Asia-Pacific region is growing more slowly in terms of WiMAX subscriptions. While it presents tremendous opportunities for WiMAX, particularly in areas like India and Indonesia where there is low broadband penetration, licensing issues are a major stumbling block. For example, our forecast does not account for WiMAX subscriptions in the 2.6 GHz (BWA) band in India because of the continued delay in licensing. Plus, WiMAX has been incorrectly positioned to compete with technologies like HSPA and LTE in the region, resulting in heightened political antics and protracted timelines for spectrum licensing in many markets. In addition, it is unlikely WiMAX will see meaningful adoption in China, where the service providers have embraced TD-SCDMA and LTE TDD.
We do, however, expect that licensing of the 2.6 GHz band-which is most suited to WiMAX-will occur during the forecast period, freeing up WiMAX providers to address this burgeoning market. With that in mind, we project WiMAX subscriptions in Asia-Pacific to increase from 0.5 million to 40.4 million between 2009 and 2015, representing a CAGR of 102 percent over the forecast period (see Exhibit 3).
Exhibit 3: WiMAX Gets Off to a Slow Start in Asia-Pacific
Source: Yankee Group, 2009
EMEA Leads the Way
While Asia-Pacific holds the most potential, the region of the globe set for the most dramatic WiMAX growth is EMEA. Our forecast predicts that WiMAX’s strongest adoption will occur in emerging markets in EMEA, particularly in Central and Eastern Europe and in Africa. Investments in Africa are accelerating, particularly with the implementation of several undersea cables and the freeing up of capital markets. We see slow progress for WiMAX in Western Europe, however, because most of the service providers are subscale with networks operating in the 3.5-3.8 GHz bands. We believe that this will remain the case until significant 2.6 GHz frequency bands are auctioned and future acquirers of TDD licenses in Western Europe are required to embrace WiMAX.
Taking these factors into consideration, Yankee Group projects WiMAX subscriptions in EMEA to increase from 2.1 million to 33.9 million between 2009 and 2015, at a CAGR of 59 percent (see Exhibit 4).
Exhibit 4: WiMAX Demand in EMEA Driven by Emerging Markets
Source: Yankee Group, 2009
WiMAX Languishes in Latin America
Perhaps the best example of market positioning hobbling WiMAX adoption is found in Latin America. Not only is spectrum scarce-particularly in the optimum 2.6 GHz band-but in this 3G-heavy environment, many investors view WiMAX as a “dead” technology and are shying away from making necessary capital investments. In addition, many urban centers across the region already offer speeds in excess of 2 Mbps, leaving WiMAX with few ways to differentiate itself. As a result, WiMAX across Latin America tends to be relegated to rural regions that are of less priority to major service providers.
Even with such constraints, however, Yankee Group sees WiMAX subscriptions in Latin America increasing from 0.3 million to 4.7 million between 2009 and 2015, a CAGR of 59 percent (see Exhibit 5).
Exhibit 5: WiMAX Growth in Latin America Truncated Relative to Broadband Demand
Source: Yankee Group, 2009
Getting There
The global WiMAX market is notoriously difficult to forecast, primarily because it relies on a range of interdependent factors, any one of which can work to stifle demand and service proliferation. To reach our forecast of 92.3 million worldwide WiMAX subscriptions by 2015, several economic, regulatory and technological barriers must be overcome. But we are already seeing signs of progress-particularly in terms of an improved economy and more savvy market positioning.
To gain widespread adoption, WiMAX must gain greater industry support-particularly from regulators and investors. We believe this support depends on WiMAX establishing itself as a compelling portable (as opposed to mobile) broadband solution, particularly in emerging markets. But as long as WiMAX continues to be erroneously pitted against 3G and emerging 3G technologies like HSPA, HSPA+ and LTE in the mobile broadband space, the mobile broadband community will create regulatory and technical roadblocks to stifle the success of WiMAX in the marketplace.
In addition to improved market positioning, regulatory easement in major markets such as India and improved investor sentiment in regions like Latin America are critical for WiMAX to gain meaningful market scale and sustained industry support.
And a little success trumpeting wouldn’t hurt either. In addition to appropriate market positioning for WiMAX, we believe it is contingent upon incumbent WiMAX operators to demonstrate and promote their market successes with the aim of improving confidence among regulators and investors.
WiMAX is a strong wireless technology with a compelling story to tell, especially in the portable broadband arena. Once it overcomes these few market barriers, the technology is indeed poised for global success.
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Gearing up for 4G - Backhaul Evolutions
By Andrew Mitchell
With mobile WiMAX deployments and the prospects of LTE deployments not far off, demand for supporting solutions for backhaul is on the upswing. In the early days of the mobile wireless services, backhaul connectivity was a relatively straightforward but not always inexpensive undertaking. Extending a T1 or E1 facility from the telco switching center to a cell site was the usual approach - limited in bandwidth and depending on how it was provisioned, sometimes a significant operational expense.
But times have changes for carriers and service providers. The days of circuit switched voice are on the decline and demand for high capacity, rapidly deployable backhaul is quickly becoming the norm. With the evolution of mobile IP networks came the need for more flexible and capable backhaul solutions - enter Ethernet interworking. The evolution seems logical enough, standards-based, proven, robust, scalable and secure; the list of positive attributes is lengthy. But those attributes aren’t without their challenges.
What is fairly easily accomplished over a 100 metres of copper or a 100 km of glass isn’t always the panacea for a mobile wireless network. Mobile networks have unique challenges for connectivity that include requirements such as timing (synchronization), low link latency and resiliency. These requirements continue to challenge engineers and designers alike and are resulting in some very compelling solutions.
To provide the type of backhaul bandwidth required, vendors are now pushing ever higher into the RF spectrum. Gigabit wireless connectivity is now being offered by vendors like ProximWireless and E-Band Communications who are now leveraging the 71/81 GHz licensed spectrum. This piece of spectrum offers some favorable characteristics for link distance, rain fade and other environmental influences.
And despite the dismal state of the global economy, investments in backhaul solutions continue to advance. Exalt Communications of Campbell, CA, announced last week that it has raised $15 million of funding to allow it to expand operations and its product portfolio. Another backhaul vendor, DragonWave Inc. recently announced its deal with Italian wireless broadband service provider Linkem Spa. DragonWave’s Horizon Compact Wireless Ethernet product will be deployed to support Linkem Spa’s new nationwide WiMAX backhaul network.
Further investment in and evolution of wireless backhaul technology continues to show promise. As carriers continue to commit to a path to 4G the backhaul industry will need to gear up to not only deliver solutions but to differentiate them as well.
